HIV incidence estimates by sex and age group in the population aged 15 years or over, Brazil, 1986-2018

Abstract INTRODUCTION HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions. METHODS Data collected by Brazilian surveillance systems were used to derive HIV incidence estimates by age group (15-24; 25+) and sex from 1986 to 2018. This study used a back-calculation method based on the first CD4 count among treatment-naïve cases. Incidence estimates for the population aged 15 years or over were compared to Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates from 2000 to 2018. RESULTS Among young men (15-24 years), HIV incidence increased from 6,400 (95% CI: 4,900-8,400), in 2000, to 12,800 (95% CI: 10,800-15,900), in 2015, reaching incidence rates higher than 70/100,000 inhabitants and an annual growth rate of 3.7%. Among young women, HIV incidence decreased from 5,000 (95% CI: 4,200-6,100) to 3,200 (95% CI: 3,000-3,700). Men aged ≥25 years and both female groups showed significant annual decreases in incidence rates from 2000 to 2018. In 2018, the estimated number of new infections was 48,500 (95% CI: 45300-57500), 34,800 (95% CI: 32800-41500) men, 13,600 (95% CI: 12,500-16,000) women. Improvements in the time from infection to diagnosis and in the proportion of cases receiving antiretroviral therapy immediately after diagnosis were found for all groups. Comparison with GBD estimates shows similar rates for men with overlapping confidence intervals. Among women, differences are higher mainly in more recent years. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate that efforts to control the HIV epidemic are having an impact. However, there is an urgent need to address the vulnerability of young men.

Exploratory spatial analysis of HBV cases in Brazil between 2005 and 2017 / Análise exploratória espacial de casos de HBV no Brasil entre 2005 e 2017

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the pattern of spatial distribution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) cases and the mortality attributed to this disease throughout the Brazilian territory, in 2005, 2016 and 2017. Methods: This is an ecological study of spatial analysis, using data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases and the Brazilian Mortality Information System. HBV detection and mortality rates were analyzed. The spatial analysis from 2005 to 2017 was held through the Global Moran's Index (I) for global data and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) for the 5,564 municipalities of the country. Results: The North region stands out with the highest HBV detection and mortality rates in the country. The Global Moran's I showed a spatial correlation of HBV cases in Brazil, and the LISA Map evidenced the presence of hotspots or spatial clusters (high-high type), mainly in the North region and also in some municipalities of Santa Catarina, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Espírito Santo, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Conclusion: The spatial analysis of the HBV distribution pattern in Brazil shows areas with a large concentration of cases, particularly in the North of the country and in other points distributed throughout the national territory. These data reinforce the urgency of intervention actions related to prevention, diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis B.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar o padrão de distribuição espacial dos casos de hepatite causada pelo vírus B (HBV) e a mortalidade atribuída a esse agravo em todo o território nacional, nos anos de 2005, 2016 e 2017. Métodos : Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de análise espacial, utilizando dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e do Sistema Nacional de Mortalidade. Analisaram-se as taxas de detecção e mortalidade de HBV. A análise espacial no período de 2005 a 2017 foi realizada por meio do Índice Global de Moran para os dados globais e dos Indicadores Locais de Associação Espacial (Lisa) para os 5.564 municípios do país. Resultados : A região Norte destaca-se pelas maiores taxas de detecção e mortalidade de HBV do país. O Índice Global de Moran revelou uma correlação espacial dos casos de HBV no Brasil, e o Lisa Map evidenciou a presença de bolsões (tipo high-high), principalmente na região Norte e também em alguns municípios de Santa Catarina, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Espírito Santo, São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro. Conclusão : A análise espacial do padrão de distribuição do HBV no Brasil revela áreas com grande concentração de casos, particularmente no Norte do país e em outros pontos distribuídos pelo território nacional. Esses dados reforçam a urgência de ações de intervenção relativas a prevenção, diagnóstico e tratamento da hepatite B.